The Confirmation Bias trap

Since the Covid vaccine came out, quite a few people reached out to me, mostly my students, asking for my opinion and advice about it. I was flattered, as some used reasoning like I know you did the research, you’re the most rational person I know etc, but I told everyone the same. If you need advice about something within my fields of expertise like yoga, yoga therapy, somatic psychotherapy etc., I’ll be happy to help you. But virology, immunology, epidemiology etc. is not my field of expertise.

But yes, just as my students did, I too discussed this topic with people in my life. I too asked my teacher(s) and was curious to know what was the opinion of those I trust to be informed. However, when I was deciding what to do (as I was confused by the amount of conflicting information), for advice and clarity I reached out to three scientists I trust, two of which are also yoga teachers. I have done my research, but they can decipher research better than I can, as well as have more than just a general understanding of how vaccines work. Weighing all I knew and believed in, I made my decision. It wasn’t quick or easy, and certainly wasn’t based on he said-she said, on Facebook posts, odd-looking websites and ‘news’ portals or a feeling. It wasn’t based on believing every single thing I read in the newspaper I trust either. It was based on my trust in science and scientists who work hard to save lives, on people working in hospitals I personally know and trust, on being informed, on numbers, and of course, on some of my beliefs which I’ll get to later. 

It’s natural to be puzzled and confused with all this. The amount of personal opinions driven by protection patterns (which are triggered by fear), and shared as evidence together with false, unbacked claims shared on social media is overwhelming. The fact it gets reposted without people fully reading it, or fact-checking just because it plays into their beliefs about the world is mind-boggling as well as dangerous. I’ve seen people share unread, satirical articles just because they liked the title and the first two sentences. The possible reason behind this is the same as the reason someone would share the quote from the Bee movie cartoon (the one about aerodynamic laws and bees actually being unable to fly) as a fact of life and not a fictional line from a cartoon. It plays into their narrative and beliefs. In psychology, this human tendency is called Confirmation Bias.  

The Holy Bias 

Confirmation Bias is a tendency to interpret new information as confirmation of pre-existing beliefs and opinions regardless of the evidence presented, and it’s very much unconscious. 

This bias occurs for different reasons, depending on the situation and it has a lot to do with how our brains work. In part, it has to do with the inability of our minds to parallel process alternate hypotheses so we process the information that aligns with our already formed or familiar beliefs. What is interesting though, is that one of the purposes it serves is to protect self-esteem, which is important for feeling secure in the world. Our brains are all about feeling safe, and they will often blindly follow the narrative they feel is safest for survival. 

As a human collective, we are faced with something we haven’t faced before, at least not in our lifetime and with it, all sorts of bias and protective patterns are emerging. Today everyone has an opinion about everything, and everyone has a voice. In the sea of information and opinions, also something we never had as much of and our brains don’t know what to do with, it’s not easy to see the truth, but it is easy to find comfort and safety in beliefs, wishes, and groups. Forming and sticking to an opinion creates a sense of knowing, and knowing means I’m safe as I made the right decision. Not knowing for sure creates uncertainty and uncertainty is scary. So, it is in human nature that "Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof." J.K. Galbraith. The question is, can we change our nature? According to evolutionary biology as well as evolutionary psychology, not as fast as we would like to. But, we sure can try. 

Unbiased (aka informed) decision making

The first step towards overcoming bias is the hardest - recognising them. But, how do you become aware of something unconscious? It’s not easy, but not all is lost. It begins with a decision to see our thoughts, words and actions from a different perspective and asking oneself - What if the opposite is true? This one helps me a lot when I feel stuck. Also:

  • Slow down your decision making

If you hear a new piece of information and react impulsively and emotionally, chances are you are reacting from your protection pattern or bias. For example, you have only read the heading and a few first sentences of an article from an unreliable source that confirms your belief and shared it right away without actually reading it, or fact-checking it. 

  • Acknowledge your limitations

You can’t know everything. Nobody does. I am the wisest man alive, said Socrates, for I know one thing, and that is that I know nothing. If you are firm and always sure in your beliefs and claim things with certainty, it might be your bias talking.

  • Know your sources but do have sources

If you want to make an informed decision, ask those you trust and who understand the subject much better than you do. But, do inform yourself as gut feeling and inner knowing might not work here. Again, we are facing something we haven’t faced before. The more information you have, the more informed decision you will make.

  • Keep an open mind

An open mind hears all the sides, listens without an opinion and makes one only after hearing all sides. Open mind changes opinions, sometimes rather often. 

Truth is always in the middle

If history’s a teacher, one of the lessons I see it teaching us is that truth is always in the middle. But, the thing with the middle is, it’s a tricky place to find, and we were not given a map. Still, we should strive to get there as this is the middle ground we can all meet on and put our heads and hearts together. If we’re all cemented on our left and right, blue and red, pro and against etc. sides, sticking to our opinions just for the gratification of I’m right and you’re wrong, nothing will ever change.

The requirement of walking the middle path on the quest for the truth is not to take sides, and to be able to switch from one to another depending on the evidence presented and without emotional, subjective involvement. Of course, this is easier said than done. Being able to do this easily would make us either robots or more evolved species than we actually are. If we survive that long, it might take another few thousand years to get there, but that doesn’t mean we can’t take first steps in the right direction today. I believe this is what awakening truly is. 

Lighter shades of grey

All I know is that I don’t know much for a fact and that nobody really does. I’m tapping here in the dark, trying to find the truth. I also know that my opinions are coloured by a very subjective, emotional and sentimental bias which I call hope. A hope that my taking the vaccine will contribute to the greater good. Just like my veganism, which is not a choice I made for health but out of empathy for the animals and for the greater good of this planet and all of us on it. I hope that scientists, journalists, doctors, and government officials are just people, people like you and me. They do their best to get the work done. Some are good at it, some are average, some are not so great at what they do, and some are opportunists. But I do like to believe most are not plotting against me or that they are complete idiots. Yes, many have an agenda, there’s a lot of psychopaths in this world, but I’m hoping it’s a far lesser percentage than those who are trying to do good. My hope is that governments are not there to take away my rights and freedom, as I don’t live in Afghanistan and no one will put a burka on me tomorrow. I believe freedom isn’t doing whatever the f… I want, freedom for me means bearing responsibility for my choices and how they affect others. I also hope that the scientistsand are not plotting to kill me. And last but not least, I hope that we still live in a world where love, empathy and the wish for the common good still exists. 

I also don’t only see the flowers and butterflies as someone told me recently, and if you know me, you know this. I see the many wrongs of pharma companies, some scientists and some doctors have done in the name of profit. But I also know that things are not black and white, there are many shades of grey in between. So, I choose the lighter shades of grey. The prospect of being wrong doesn’t scare me, I take responsibility for me.